By fixating on past performances, we might be shutting the door on adaptability, versatility and inspired leadership, says Tom Blower

If organisations are going to grow the workforce of the future they will need to rethink talent in three ways:

Predictability: we’re not very good at predicting anyway – and we’re likely to get worse at it the more the future diverges from the past.

Variability: there’s very good data to show the benefits of diversity in organisations. We need to find different ways to develop people and prepare them for senior leadership. 

Adaptability: people are inherently adaptable, and versatility provides the foundation that gives rise to adaptability. It strengthens an organisation’s capacity to adapt and thrive through uncertainty.

Predictability is overrated

Let’s be honest, judging people is never that accurate anyway. Most of us are terrible at it.

Daniel Kahneman’s book Noise: A Flaw in Human Judgment confirms how poor we are at making useful predictions. We underestimate uncertainty, overestimate our forecasting abilities and let biases affect our decision-making. Everything risks becoming a bit homogenous. So, it makes sense for organisations to rethink leadership selection – which will also affect the development of wider teams.

Traditional assessments of leadership potential rely on patterns from the past to project future success. The problem is that doesn’t account for how people might evolve. In truth, these assessments rely on a number of assumptions about the future.

The work of leadership development is about unpicking assumptions and revealing potential that goes far beyond performance reviews or psychometric assessments.

You need to enable participants to access new capabilities and let go of old routines. When development programmes focus solely on who someone has been rather than who they can become, they risk missing out on talent that could shake up an organisation’s future.

Instead of investing time and energy in predicting, we should repurpose to helping people build self awareness of strengths and the opportunities for them to grow. There is also a better return in ‘meeting people where they are at’. Helping them acknowledge the current situation and supporting them in growing by overcoming the real obstacles that are hindering their progress. This creates the possibility of delivering long-term value for the participant and their organisation by achieving short-term increase in capability and, in the longer term, building the capacity to change.

Variability is a pathway to success

The value of diversity in organisations has been well established – a McKinsey & Company report found that companies in the top quartile for leadership diversity were 39% more likely to achieve financial success than those in the bottom quartile. There’s no one blueprint for leadership; the true value to an organisation is a varied range of  strengths, backgrounds and perspectives. Research by Forbes also shows that diverse teams make better decisions and are more innovative because they think in different ways and challenge traditional approaches. If organisations need to be more agile than ever to succeed, surely betting on flexibility rather than a fixed trajectory makes far more sense.

Helping rather than judging means embracing variability by working with groups, not just individuals. Peer coaching allows groups to harness diverse perspectives to tackle challenges while developing essential skills like active listening and curious questioning. These skills create psychological safety by progressing through the four stages – inclusion, learner, contributor and challenger – creating an environment where differences become a source of strength. As a result, individual group members can apply this approach within their own teams, unlocking greater potential.

Adaptability is power

Adaptability is the buzzword of the moment. A quick glance at the business news tells us how unpredictable things are. Markets turn on a dime, industries evolve and organisations are constantly moving goal posts. It stands to reason that those who can learn, adjust and grow are more likely to thrive. People are inherently adaptable, though our education and work experiences often favour specialist knowledge and skills of general capability. At an individual level we look to enabling versatility – the ability to freely use opposing approaches and behaviours – to support the long-term success of the participant and the organisation. Versatile leaders lead adaptable organisations.

According to Harvard Business Review, versatile leaders are five times more likely to adapt their style to different situations, leading to more effective decision-making. These leaders often have diverse career paths and greater learning agility, too, making them better equipped to handle change.

Developing versatility means shifting the focus from a fixed set of universal skills to the ability to recognise context and adapt behaviors that drive progress for both the individual and those around them. This is best achieved by emphasising the ‘what’ of leadership – what leaders prioritise, what they stop doing and what they let go of – rather than focusing solely on the ‘how’ of specific behaviors. This approach requires deeper effort but leads to more meaningful growth.

These different ways of thinking come to life most effectively through coaching groups and executive teams. The process involves challenging traditional beliefs about leadership – shifting from a focus on behaviors to outcomes – and rethinking development as a collective effort rather than an individual pursuit. Ultimately, leaders must learn to suspend judgment (of both themselves and others), explore diverse perspectives and adapt (both personally and within their environment) to thrive in an era of uncertainty.

From judgment to growth

Most of us agree that a blame culture prevents growth. Companies that get hung up on past mistakes miss opportunities to learn, adapt and innovate. Which is why the future of leadership lies in embracing uncertainty, cultivating adaptability and focusing on collective growth.

It’s not about being the smartest person in the room – it’s about bringing out the best in others. Today’s best leaders don’t just evaluate, they elevate. They don’t just assess, they assist. When we move away from judgment towards support, we create the conditions for real leadership potential to flourish.

A version of this article was published by Minutehack here